Search Results - (Author, Cooperation:M. R. Allen)
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1Latest Papers from Table of Contents or Articles in PressStaff View
Publication Date: 2018-03-06Publisher: Wiley-BlackwellPrint ISSN: 0094-8276Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007Topics: GeosciencesPhysicsPublished by: -
2Latest Papers from Table of Contents or Articles in PressP. Pall ; T. Aina ; D. A. Stone ; P. A. Stott ; T. Nozawa ; A. G. Hilberts ; D. Lohmann ; M. R. Allen
Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
Published 2011Staff ViewPublication Date: 2011-02-19Publisher: Nature Publishing Group (NPG)Print ISSN: 0028-0836Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687Topics: BiologyChemistry and PharmacologyMedicineNatural Sciences in GeneralPhysicsKeywords: Disasters/*statistics & numerical data ; England ; Floods/*statistics & numerical data ; Global Warming/statistics & numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/*statistics & numerical data ; *Human Activities ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Rivers ; Seasons ; WalesPublished by: -
3Latest Papers from Table of Contents or Articles in PressStaff View
Publication Date: 2012-01-24Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)Print ISSN: 0036-8075Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203Topics: BiologyChemistry and PharmacologyComputer ScienceMedicineNatural Sciences in GeneralPhysicsPublished by: -
4Articles: DFG German National LicensesStaff View
ISSN: 1476-4687Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009Topics: BiologyChemistry and PharmacologyMedicineNatural Sciences in GeneralPhysicsNotes: [Auszug] The weather at middle latitudes is largely unpredictable more than a week or so in advance, whereas fluctuations in the ocean may be predictable over much longer timescales. If decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature could be predicted, it might be possible to exploit ...Type of Medium: Electronic ResourceURL: -
5Articles: DFG German National LicensesStaff View
ISSN: 0010-7476Topics: EducationURL: -
6Articles: DFG German National LicensesStaff View
ISSN: 1035-8811Topics: Ethnic SciencesURL: -
7Articles: DFG German National LicensesAina, T. ; Christensen, C. ; Collins, M. ; Faull, N. ; Frame, D. J. ; Kettleborough, J. A. ; Knight, S. ; Martin, A. ; Murphy, J. M. ; Piani, C. ; Sexton, D. ; Smith, L. A. ; Spicer, R. A. ; Thorpe, A. J. ; Allen, M. R. ; Stainforth, D. A.
[s.l.] : Macmillian Magazines Ltd.
Published 2005Staff ViewISSN: 1476-4687Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009Topics: BiologyChemistry and PharmacologyMedicineNatural Sciences in GeneralPhysicsNotes: [Auszug] The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical ...Type of Medium: Electronic ResourceURL: -
8Articles: DFG German National LicensesStaff View
ISSN: 1476-4687Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009Topics: BiologyChemistry and PharmacologyMedicineNatural Sciences in GeneralPhysicsNotes: [Auszug] The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a ...Type of Medium: Electronic ResourceURL: -
9Articles: DFG German National LicensesStaff View
ISSN: 1432-0894Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000Topics: GeosciencesPhysicsNotes: Abstract Realistic simulation of the internal variability of the climate system is important both for climate change detection and as an indicator of whether the physics of the climate system is well-represented in a climate model. In this work zonal mean atmospheric temperatures from a control run of the second Hadley Centre coupled GCM are compared with gridded radiosonde observations for the past 38 years to examine how well modelled and observed variability agree. On time scales of between six months and twenty years, simulated and observed variability of global mean temperatures agree well for the troposphere, but in the equatorial stratosphere variability is lower in the model than in the observations, particularly at periods of two years and seven to twenty years. We find good agreement between modelled and observed variability in the mass-weighted amplitude of a forcing-response pattern, as used for climate change detection, but variability in a signal-to-noise optimised fingerprint pattern is significantly greater in the observations than in a model control run. This discrepancy is marginally consistent with anthropogenic forcing, but more clearly explained by a combination of solar and volcanic forcing, suggesting these should be considered in future `vertical detection' studies. When the relationship between tropical lapse rate and mean temperature was examined, it was found that these quantities are unrealistically coherent in the model at periods above three years. However, there is a clear negative lapse rate feedback in both model and observations: as the tropical troposphere warms, the mid-tropospheric lapse rate decreases on all the time scales considered.Type of Medium: Electronic ResourceURL: -
10Articles: DFG German National LicensesHegerl, G. C. ; Stott, P. A. ; Allen, M. R. ; Mitchell, J. F. B. ; Tett, S. F. B. ; Cubasch, U.
Springer
Published 2000Staff ViewISSN: 1432-0894Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000Topics: GeosciencesPhysicsNotes: Abstract Fingerprint techniques for the detection of anthropogenic climate change aim to distinguish the climate response to anthropogenic forcing from responses to other external influences and from internal climate variability. All these responses and the characteristics of internal variability are typically estimated from climate model data. We evaluate the sensitivity of detection and attribution results to the use of response and variability estimates from two different coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (HadCM2, developed at the Hadley Centre, and ECHAM3/LSG from the MPI für Meteorologie and Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum). The models differ in their response to greenhouse gas and direct sulfate aerosol forcing and also in the structure of their internal variability. This leads to differences in the estimated amplitude and the significance level of anthropogenic signals in observed 50-year summer (June, July, August) surface temperature trends. While the detection of anthropogenic influence on climate is robust to intermodel differences, our ability to discriminate between the greenhouse gas and the sulfate aerosol signals is not. An analysis of the recent warming, and the warming that occurred in the first half of the twentieth century, suggests that simulations forced with combined changes in natural (solar and volcanic) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol) forcings agree best with the observations.Type of Medium: Electronic ResourceURL: -
11Articles: DFG German National LicensesStaff View
ISSN: 1432-0894Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000Topics: GeosciencesPhysicsNotes: Abstract. Extended empirical orthogonal functions (EEOFs), alternatively known as multi-channel singular systems (or singular spectrum) analysis (MSSA), provide a natural method of extracting oscillatory modes of variability from multivariate data. The eigenfunctions of some simple non-oscillatory noise processes are, however, also solutions to the wave equation, so the occurrence of stable, wave-like patterns in EEOF/MSSA is not sufficient grounds for concluding that data exhibits oscillations. We present a generalisation of the "Monte Carlo SSA" algorithm which allows an objective test for the presence of oscillations at low signal-to-noise ratios in multivariate data. The test is similar to those used in standard regression, examining directions in state-space to determine whether they contain more variance than would be expected if the noise null-hypothesis were valid. We demonstrate the application of the test to the analysis of interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures.Type of Medium: Electronic ResourceURL: -
12Articles: DFG German National LicensesStaff View
ISSN: 1432-0894Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000Topics: GeosciencesPhysicsNotes: Abstract Current approaches to the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic influence on climate involve quantifying the level of agreement between model-predicted patterns of externally forced change and observed changes in the recent climate record. Analyses of uncertainty rely on simulated variability from a climate model. Any numerical representation of the climate is likely to display too little variance on small spatial scales, leading to a risk of spurious detection results. The risk is particularly severe if the detection strategy involves optimisation of signal-to-noise because unrealistic aspects of model variability may automatically be given high weight through the optimisation. The solution is to confine attention to aspects of the model and of the real climate system in which the model simulation of internal climate variability is adequate, or, more accurately, cannot be shown to be deficient. We propose a simple consistency check based on standard linear regression which can be applied to both the space-time and frequency domain approaches to optimal detection and demonstrate the application of this check to the problem of detection and attribution of anthropogenic signals in the radiosonde-based record of recent trends in atmospheric vertical temperature structure. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases can be detected at a high confidence level in this diagnostic, while the combined influence of anthropogenic sulphates and stratospheric ozone depletion is less clearly evident. Assuming the time-scales of the model response are correct, and neglecting the possibility of non-linear feedbacks, the amplitude of the observed signal suggests a climate sensitivity range of 1.2–3.4 K, although the upper end of this range may be underestimated by up to 25% due to uncertainty in model-predicted response patterns.Type of Medium: Electronic ResourceURL: